As the men’s basketball season enters its final two weeks, the title race is shaping up in a very even Big 12 Conference. With four games left, only West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are totally out of the race for first place in the league. Iowa State sits in a fourth-place tie as of Monday, and the Cyclones could finish anywhere from first to seventh in the league.
With the Cyclones sitting 17-9 and carrying zero bad losses (all nine defeats count as Quad 1 losses, and Iowa State has seven Quad 1 wins to balance them out), they’re a virtual lock to make the NCAA tournament. Will you be able to bet on the Cyclones in March Madness in Iowa? You can find out here.
So, with that in mind, the next question is whether Iowa State can make a run at the Big 12 title, as well as where they might play in the NCAA tournament. Nonetheless, it’s still one of the best campaigns ever by the Iowa State basketball team.
Here’s a look at their final stretch and what has to happen!
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Iowa State Has To Win Out
The Cyclones can’t afford to take another loss, even though they visit both Texas and Baylor. It’s going to be hard enough for Iowa State to catch Kansas, Texas and Baylor as it is, but it becomes impossible if they lose in either Austin or Waco. That’s a problem, because winning on the road is not one of Iowa State’s strengths.
The team has just two wins on the road all season, beating Oklahoma and TCU away. They’ve come close in losses to Kansas, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas State, losing all five by six points or less.
However, Texas and Baylor are two of the strongest home teams in the Big 12 and they’re on track to win the league themselves. The Longhorns have just one loss at home all season, and that came to Kansas State just before former coach Chris Beard was fired. Under Rodney Terry, Texas is unbeaten in Austin, making this a tough task for the Cyclones. Baylor is also a strong home team, losing to Kansas State and TCU in January but not once at home since then.
It almost goes without saying, but the Cyclones certainly can’t afford a loss to Oklahoma or West Virginia at home. Not only would defeat against either basically kill Iowa State’s chances of first place, but a loss to last-place Oklahoma would damage the Cyclones’ NCAA tournament seed.
The Big 12 is so strong as a whole that the only possible bad loss in the entire conference is losing to either Texas Tech or Oklahoma on your home court. As long as Iowa State doesn’t do that, the Cyclones will be in good shape for the tournament that matters, even if they don’t finish first in the Big 12.
Here. We. Go.#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/0zxtFgrpT2
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) February 22, 2023
How Does Kansas Come Into Play?
Any time you’re trying to do anything in the Big 12, you have to go through Kansas. And that’s going to be tough, because the Jayhawks own a two-game lead on the Cyclones with four to play. Fortunately, the schedule does give Iowa State a shot to take down the Jayhawks, as Kansas has to visit Texas and TCU, the latter of which gives Kansas nightmares. The Horned Frogs already beat the Jayhawks by 23 in Lawrence and bested Kansas by 10 in Fort Worth last season. A Kansas loss is never a sure thing, but it’s certainly not impossible.
Beyond that, it gets dicey. For this to work, Kansas would either have to lose a stunner at home to West Virginia or Texas Tech, or get beaten in Austin on the season’s final day. The latter possibility is far more likely, but it underscores just how fragile Iowa State’s hopes are. A Texas win over Kansas would mean someone other than Iowa State must also beat the Longhorns, with Baylor and TCU the most likely candidates.
Baylor would make the most sense; the Cyclones don’t need anyone else to beat the Bears as long as they win in Waco. If Kansas fell to Texas and TCU and Baylor beat Texas, Iowa State could force a four-way tie for first by running the table. In that scenario, the Cyclones would win the tiebreakers, as they would be 5-1 against Kansas, Texas and Baylor.
Sights and Sounds of the Moody Center. #Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/VNviFbLBgJ
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) February 21, 2023
What About Kansas State?
The Wildcats can also force their way into a potential tiebreaker if they win out, and they have the best chance to do so. K-State hosts Baylor, then finishes with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and West Virginia, about as mild of a finish as you can get in the Big 12.
Iowa State would still win a tiebreaker with Kansas State if it wins out by virtue of sweeping Texas, which split with the Wildcats. Still, a four-way tie remains a very real possibility.
Even if Iowa State doesn’t win out, the Cyclones’ hopes to play in Des Moines aren’t lost. Iowa State can likely earn a top-four seed and the coveted spot in the Wells Fargo Center if it can win two or three regular season games and the Big 12 tournament.
That would add plenty to the Cyclones’ body of work, but it’s also a tough challenge given how strong the league is. But the Cyclones have a chance, and given where they were two years ago, that’s all they can ask for.
#⃣2⃣3⃣ This Week.#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/q89kVfwaNs
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) February 20, 2023
Credits on Featured Image: Dirk DBQ/Flickr
