With Iowa and Iowa State now both having a conference game under their belts, now’s the time to take a look back at their respective league openers and figure out what we’ve learned that we can use for future betting opportunities.
Every game from here on in is a league matchup for each team, so both the Hawkeyes and Cyclones will be dealing with teams that know them well and that they know well.
That means figuring out each team’s strengths and weaknesses will be critical for the rest of the season because those are often magnified against opponents who know how to prepare against a team.
Here’s what we can take from each contest.
Iowa State’s Discipline Was Poor Against Baylor
Baylor coach Dave Aranda might have said after the Bears’ 31-24 win at Jack Trice Stadium that the Cyclones make you beat them and never beat themselves, but beating themselves is exactly what the Cyclones did against Baylor. When you look at the numbers, Baylor only outgained Iowa State by 11 yards for the contest and the Cyclones converted half of their third down opportunities.
The two big differences on the stat sheets: are turnovers and penalties. Iowa State really hurt its cause with two Hunter Dekkers interceptions, but the real killer was eight penalties for 78 yards. Dekkers is a young quarterback, and he will make errors as he learns on the fly to replace what Brock Purdy did for this offense. Iowa State can live with its mistakes as the team grows together.
Still, the Cyclones absolutely cannot afford to shoot themselves in the foot with bad penalties, and that’s what happened here.
In contrast, Baylor made no serious mistakes. Iowa State cannot repeat that if it hopes to beat the top half of the Big 12. The Cyclones do not have a talent advantage over most of the teams on their schedule; they must win by executing better than their opponent. Against Baylor, they didn’t, which is why they lost a Big 12 game in Ames for the first time since falling to Oklahoma State in 2019.
Final.
🌪🚨🌪 pic.twitter.com/1gbIIvAV7T
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 24, 2022
The Cyclones Had No Ground Game Against the Bears
This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, because teams just do not run on Baylor. The Bears rank ninth in the nation against the run and only give up 79.5 yards per game on the ground. Of course, Iowa State is even better against the run, as the Cyclones only give up 75.8 yards per game on the ground.
The difference was that Baylor stuck with the run for longer than Iowa State did, so the Cyclones’ rushing numbers looked a little worse than the Bears’ numbers did.
In reality, neither team was able to do much of anything on the ground and this game came down to who could throw the ball without making mistakes.
🌪🦎🌪#GBvsTB
📺 FOX
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 25, 2022
A Win Will Come: Eventually
Iowa State’s going to lose the battle of rushing yards several weeks this season because the Cyclones just aren’t that committed to the ground game. In the Big 12, they don’t have to be in terms of attacking the
opposing defense. It’s not like this is the Big Ten, which features first-rate pass defenses like Minnesota and Michigan. There are only two teams in the Big 12 who give up fewer than 200 yards a game through the air, and one of them is the Cyclones themselves (the other is Kansas State).
With that said, the Cyclones will have to win a game on the ground at some point, because Iowa State will eventually run into an opponent that its defense can’t slow down. In the Big 12, your best defense is often your running game, because you need to keep a team like Texas Tech or Oklahoma State from getting back on the field.
Iowa State doesn’t need to become a running team by any means, but someone needs to step up alongside Jirehl Brock to get the Cyclones’ ground game moving a little better than it did against Baylor.
Ready to get back at it!
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 26, 2022
Iowa State Must Play a Stronger Third Quarter
There’s no question that Baylor won this game in the third quarter. Iowa State had four drives that began in the third quarter, and none were productive. Two drives ended with the Cyclones punting, and two ended with a Dekkers interception that gave Baylor great field position.
The second interception technically came in the fourth quarter, but the drive started in the third quarter’s final minute. By the time Iowa State touched the ball for its first true fourth-quarter drive, less than 10 minutes remained and Baylor led 31-14. And had the defense not stood tall after Dekkers’ first pick, it could have been even worse.
Iowa State has no easy outs in the Big 12. Now that Kansas has a pulse, there are no pushovers in this league. That means every game from here on out will be decided in the third and fourth quarters. Iowa State must be ready for a complete performance in the second half moving forward.
First-Half 📸
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 24, 2022
Iowa’s Defense Won the Game Against Rutgers
When you get a defensive touchdown, that’s a good sign you’re going to win the game. When you get two of them, you should absolutely win the game, and that’s exactly what Iowa did. The Hawkeye defense continues to be what everyone expected: a fierce, opportunistic group that’s capable of changing a game every time it’s on the field.
Against Rutgers, Iowa’s defense did all that was necessary for the first half by creating two huge plays that swung the game’s momentum away from the Scarlet Knights.
The Hawkeyes’ offense might look like something that was killed crossing the street, but Iowa prides itself on winning the battle on defense and special teams, and that happened again here.
Kirk Ferentz is a master of letting opponents lose the game rather than trying to go out and beat them, and Iowa did exactly that in New Jersey.
Through three.#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/42ECTc66Vg
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) September 25, 2022
Iowa Can’t Use This Blueprint Against Better Big Ten Teams
This strategy worked against Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights don’t have the offense needed to compete in the Big Ten. Like Iowa, Rutgers’ game plan is built around letting opponents lose the game because the Scarlet Knights have a strong defense and a weak offense.
However, it didn’t work here because Iowa has better players as a result of Kirk Ferentz being in Iowa City a lot longer than Greg Schiano has been back at Rutgers (24 seasons to three in Schiano’s second stint).
Nonetheless, Michigan isn’t built that way. Neither is Ohio State and neither is Purdue. There’s a reason that Purdue seemingly comes out of nowhere to beat Iowa every season, and that’s because the Boilermakers also do not beat themselves but produce points in the process.
Eventually, Iowa is going to have to find something that resembles an offense in order to get the job done against more talented Big Ten teams. If they don’t, the Hawkeyes are simply going to lose a lot of 17-10 and 21-13 football games.
Fight For Iowa.#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/FVSdMppwYE
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) September 25, 2022
The Offense Did Hardly Anything in the First Half Again
Iowa has now played four games overall, and the Hawkeyes have scored a grand total of 44 points in the first half to this point. And of those 44 points, 38 were either scored or set up by Iowa’s defense or special teams.
In the first half, Iowa has two defensive touchdowns and three touchdowns where the possession started on the opponent’s side of the field because the defense created a turnover. For the season, Iowa has just two first-half drives where it began on its side of the field and scored on the same possession and both of those resulted in field goals.
Against Michigan, that will not work. You have to be able to score to beat the Wolverines because if Michigan doesn’t get you early, it’s going to get you late. The Hawkeyes found that out the hard way last year when the defense held strong for three quarters before finally breaking down and allowing three touchdowns in the fourth quarter in a 42-3 loss in the Big Ten title game.
The problem is that Iowa’s offensive woes don’t have an obvious solution in 2022. Marco Lainez and James Resar seem to signal that help is on the way in Iowa City, but Lainez won’t get to Iowa until 2023, and Resar not until 2024.
Post-win locker room >>#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/zZmJvLulWX
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) September 25, 2022
Finding Solutions
The quarterback that can help Iowa win in 2022 likely isn’t on the roster. Spencer Petras has proven that he is not the guy, and none of Iowa’s other quarterbacks have stepped into the gaping void under center to replace him.
So the Hawkeyes are kind of stuck relying on the defense and a tepid running game to save them from the fact that the passing game is a major liability. Iowa is going to play a lot of low-scoring games this year unless the defense comes up big as it did at Rutgers.
There are enough teams that will beat themselves for Iowa to make it 10 straight years in a bowl game, but this team probably doesn’t have the offense needed to think about making it back to Indianapolis this year.
A Knight Out East#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/pnZPxNHnoD
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) September 26, 2022
Featured Image by Maize & Blue Nation on Flickr
