With the conference championship games behind us, it’s now time to turn our attention toward the big game: the Super Bowl.
More people watch the Super Bowl than any other sporting event in the United States, as around 110 million people tune in every year. Based on population, that means one out of every three Americans will be watching the game on Feb. 12, including many people in Hawkeye State.
Because sports betting is very easy in Iowa, hundreds of thousands of people across the state will place a bet or two on the game. Whether it’s a bet on the spread, the moneyline, or the points, there will be plenty of action coming in on the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
If you want to be part of the action, it’s important to build your strategy and understand the basics well before kickoff. These tips can help you decide where you want to place your money to maximize both your chances of winning and the amount that you can win!
Betting the Spread on the Super Bowl
The spread is the most popular way to bet on the big game. But if you’re a fan of the underdog, it’s also the worst way to bet on it.
That’s because the team that covers the Super Bowl almost always wins the game in the process, making it almost pointless to bet the underdog with the points. In 56 previous Super Bowls, the underdog has won the game straight up 20 times and covered in defeat just seven times. Betting the underdog to cover isn’t a bad idea, but 74% of the time, you’d have left money on the table by taking the points instead of taking them to win.
On the other side of the coin, betting the favorite to cover the spread almost always makes sense for the same reason. The favorite is 36-20 overall and 27-27-2 ATS, which means that the price you’d have to pay to bet the favorite to win isn’t worth the benefits. Nine times, it would have turned either a loss or a push into a win, but 75% of the time, you’d have a winning bet anyway and left money on the table.
When deciding which team to bet on in the Super Bowl, take a look at which team is favored to win the game and study them carefully.
When you do, do so without looking at the line itself. In most games, it’s important to know the number, but in the Super Bowl, history says that it doesn’t mean that much. In this game, the important thing to consider is whether you think the underdog can win the game straight up.
Bet On The Underdog
Can you see the underdog winning in a plausible way? Can you see a matchup advantage that the underdog has that gives them a good chance of getting ahead and staying ahead? Do you think that the underdog has a better coaching matchup against the favorite that gives them the edge? If you do, then you should ignore the spreads and bet on the underdog to win the game.
If you think the favorite is most likely to win, then lay the points with them. History says that 88 percent of the time, your team will either win the game and cover the number, or they’ll fail to do both. That’s about as good as it gets for your chances.
Super Bowl lines are here ‼️
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Betting the Total for the Super Bowl
Betting the total isn’t quite as cut and dried as betting the spread, because there isn’t a major trend to lead you in one direction with this bet. However, there are still some strategies you can and should employ to find the right number for your bet.
The first is to consider what kind of teams you’re dealing with and what they’re likely to do well. For Super Bowl 57, the game will be played indoors, so the weather isn’t a factor. So that means this will be a pure matchup of team vs. team.
For Kansas City, points will probably come because of the passing attack. The Chiefs lead the NFL in passing yards per game, and they lead the NFL in points per game. They don’t always get to air the ball out in the playoffs because AFC teams tend to build toward trying to stop Patrick Mahomes, but when they take to the skies, they’ve been effective.
Conversely, Philadelphia is more diverse with its attack. The Eagles get good rushing from Miles Sanders as well as quarterback Jalen Hurts, but they’re also fairly effective through the air. Philadelphia hasn’t proven as explosive as Kansas City, but the Eagles do just fine for themselves. They score 28.1 points per game to 29.2 points from the Chiefs, so these are quality offenses in this game.
On the other side of the coin, the defenses’ effectiveness comes into play here. Philadelphia ranks first in the league against the pass, which could stifle Kansas City’s effectiveness in the air. The Chiefs’ defense is stronger against the run than it is the pass, which might force Philadelphia to take to the air more than usual. You’ll also need to consider what the game flow might be like.
A game that’s full of running plays leads to a running clock, which lends itself to the under. A game where teams keep throwing means the clock will stop regularly, giving teams more of a chance to score. Before you place a wager, make sure you’re considering every angle.
Parlays and Teasers: Pairing Multiple Bets Together
Taking into account how teams like to play can help a lot when pairing the spread with the total. The Super Bowl is really popular for big bets, and a parlay can be a great way to maximize your winnings on a single bet.
The most popular parlay bet to make includes pairing the spread with the total, and the best way to do that is to analyze how you think the game is likely to play out. We’ve discussed the respective strengths of each team, and a parlay bet is where you can really put your knowledge to good use. For example, if Kansas City is going to win the game, how are the Chiefs likely to do it?
Their passing game says that’s the likely path to victory, and their defense is stronger against the run than it is against the pass. That means that if Kansas City wins the game, it’s probably going to be a high-scoring game where the Chiefs solve the Eagles’ pass defense. That kind of analysis can give you an edge when you look for your numbers.
You can use this same logic to put together a teaser play. If you don’t really like the numbers that you’re seeing from the total, you can tease the total a few points in the direction that you like to create a winning bet. With two bets on the board, you’re going to make more money either way than you would with a single play, so it’s OK if you leave a few dollars on the table here. If you can get an extra four points on the total and get the spread to a critical number on a teaser play, that can be the difference between winning and losing.
Again, you’ll want to analyze the teams and decide what’s most likely to happen. Knowing how each team likes to play can help you decide what a good number is and when you should make your move.
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Quarter, Half and Live Bets: Cutting the Game Into Pieces
Let’s say that you want to make a quick bet and get out, without having to worry about how the rest of the game is going to go. You can do that too, and you can even use the knowledge of how teams like to play to your advantage.
Here’s a great example: Philadelphia and Kansas City happen to be the two best offenses in the league in the first half. The Eagles average 18.2 points in the opening 30 minutes, and the Chiefs rank second with 15.5 points in the first half. That could be a telling clue for your bet, as the Eagles clearly win most of their games by jumping on teams early before they have a chance to get comfortable. Based on the trends, you can either back the Eagles to win the first half or take the over for first-half points.
You can also use this knowledge in the other direction if you want to place a live wager. Once the game starts, the lines will constantly be moving in multiple ways. Based on the fact that Philadelphia tends to do most of its scoring in the first half and Kansas City is more consistent, you might want to back the Chiefs at a better number if they do fall behind the Eagles in the early stages of the game.
As with most bets, knowledge is power. With the Super Bowl offering so many ways to bet the game, you’ll need to keep a cool head and know what your numbers are. If you’re on top of the information that you’ll need to place the right bet, you’ll give yourself an excellent chance to cash a few bets and end your Super Bowl evening with a winner!
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